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October 6th Auto Racing news ... Bet Indy 500 at bet-indy500.com

NASCAR: Lifelock.com 400 (7:30 PM ET, TNT)
2021-07-09

The NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit opens up the second half of the season at Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, Il. Saturday’s Lifelock.com 400, will be the 10th annual race at the 1.5 mile tri-oval, and so far, only two drivers have reached Victory Lane more than once, current series leader Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart, with two wins each. Strangely, despite that and the fact that both are in the top four among active drivers in Top 5’s & Top 10’s at this track, you won’t find either listed among the race favorites. In fact, according to , at least five drivers are listed better than Harvick at 12-1, and Stewart at 20-1. Can they pull the upset?

Kevin Harvick takes a huge point lead into the season’s second half, 212-points over Jeff Gordon and 225-points over Jimmie Johnson. Kurt Busch (-245), Denny Hamlin (-284), and Kyle Busch (-308) round out the Top 6. Of those, only Gordon has yet to win a race this season, as the others have all accomplished that feat at least twice, led by Johnson and Hamlin at five apiece. The odds for this week’s Lifelock.com 400 are highly reflective of the standings, as the Top 6 are the favored six for the race. Johnson is the official favorite, at 7-2 odds, despite the fact that he has never won in Chicago in eight starts. Hamlin is next at 6-1 but has a far from rich history here. Kyle Busch is 7-1, and won this race two years ago. Gordon is 8-1, and won here is 2006, although that was when they ran on Sunday afternoon. Kurt Busch is 10-1, and Harvick is 12-1.

Kevin Harvick comes off the huge win at Daytona in which he alternated between helping teammate and frontrunner for most of the 166 laps. Kasey Kahne (15-1) came in second, followed up by Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton (12-1) and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1). There were several huge multi-car wreck incidents as well that collected among others Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Juan Montoya, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray. Of those, Newman, Logano, and McMurray took the biggest hit in the standings, as each remains on the outside of the Chase looking in right now. Earnhardt, Jr. was the biggest beneficiary, climbing up into the Top 12 in 11th, seven points ahead of Carl Edwards, and 46-points in front of Mark Martin.

Last year’s race here set a record for fewest cautions and was thoroughly dominated by Mark Martin, who led 195 of the 267 laps and spent every single lap in the Top 15. That win was one of several Martin had by this time a year ago, but unfortunately, he seems so far removed from even contending for a win in 2010. Oddsmakers have taken notice, listing him at 25-1. As mentioned earlier, the race at Chicagoland used to be held on Sunday afternoon. Consistently brutal weather conditions forced a move by NASCAR prior to the 2008 race though, as it seemed as if race day always fell on the hottest day of the year. I should know, since I actually attended this race in 2006 in near 100-degree temperatures. When the races were run in the afternoon there was typically a lot of attrition, due to both wrecks and motors going. Heat, drivers, and engines just don’t seem to mix well. Thus, if you’re really getting down to statistics when handicapping this week’s race, you may want to consider just looking at the last two years’ events. Those were both at night, and both in the COT.

The stats show Tony Stewart leading the way in average finish in the last two visits to Chicagoland, at 4.5. he has 4th & 5th place finishes to his credit, adding to five other Top 5’s he had beforehand at this venue. That leads the career list. Interestingly, Stewart, for his overall success, has only led 12 laps in the two races here of ’08 & ’09. The drivers most frequently at the front have been Mark Martin (195 – all in ’09 win) and Kyle Busch (165 – all in ’08 win). Jimmie Johnson is next among non-winners with 73 laps led while Greg Biffle has paced 43 laps. Johnson has also averaged a 5th place finish in the last two events with Jeff Gordon third in that category at 6.5. The drivers that have really struggled here the last two years have been Jeff Burton (28.0 avg. fin.), Carl Edwards (23.0), Kurt Busch (22.5), and Denny Hamlin (22.5). For Hamlin, the last two years have continued a trend that finds him averaging just a 19th place finish in four career Joliet starts.

Overall, as you handicap this race, take a look at the recent action at the so called “cookie cutter” tracks, the 1-1/2 mile ovals like Texas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Lowe’s, particularly those at Lowe’s where the action is also under the lights. Incidentally, Kurt Busch won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May. Neither qualifying nor practice speeds have amounted to much when it comes to indicators of success here, with only one of the nine previous winners starting in the Top 5 (average 14.9) and only one of the last five practicing better than 12th (17.8). The green flag for the Lifelock.com 400 is set to drop on Saturday night at 7:46 PM ET on TNT again.

It’s had a handful of different names over the years, including Firecracker 400, Pepsi 400 and now Coke Zero 400, but Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona is always one of the best on the yearly schedule. This race is how NASCAR honors the 4th of July weekend, and it is well-recognized for fireworks both on and off the track. The combination of night racing, superspeedway action at the circuit’s most famous track, and holiday pageantry make the Coke Zero 400 “must-see TV”. On top of all that, Daytona is always competitive down to the final pass of the start-finish line, and while there are certain favorites who will be out front for much of Saturday’s race, underdogs are certainly capable of winning. Consider Jamie McMurray, winner of February’s Daytona 500, and owner of three straight Top 2 finishes on plate tracks. Oddsmakers show him at an intriguing 16-1 price.

There are a handful of drivers who have consistently set the pace at Daytona and Talladega since the introduction of the COT in NASCAR back in ’07. In fact, there are four drivers that have led over 200 laps in the 11 plate races run in the new cars. Those would include Kyle Busch (310 LL, 13-2 odds), Denny Hamlin (244, 18-1), Tony Stewart (242, 6-1), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (201, 10-1). Of the four, Hamlin and Junior haven’t registered a win in that span, while Busch and Stewart have recorded two each. Jamie McMurray is the only other driver with multiple plate wins in that time frame. Furthermore, Stewart, Busch, and McMurray make up the last five winners of this race, with Stewart having accomplished the feat three times, including last July. As you analyze the stats for the plate tracks, note that they can be deceiving, as Busch and Stewart, despite their lofty laps led totals and multiple wins, are tied for just fourth in average finish in plate races since October ’07, with 15.91. A driver is just as likely to score a Top 10 finish in these races as he is to wreck and DNF.

As I just indicated, average finish statistics at Daytona can be misleading. Look no further than the fact that the driver with the lowest average finish in his career here is Clint Bowyer (14-1), with a very modest 17.9. He only owns two Top 5’s without a win in eight career starts. Jeff Gordon (8-1) paces the field with six career DIS wins but has not reached Victory lane at this prestigious venue since February ’05. Therefore, with the favorites being recognized earlier, albeit some with less than favorite odds, are there any other darkhorses to consider? Of course, and I would start with Kurt Busch (8-1), Matt Kenseth (12-1), Kevin Harvick (13-1), and Ryan Newman (22-1), each of whom is highly regarded for his plate-track prowess. In fact, the driver with the best record during the past three years is Kurt Busch. He entered this year's Daytona 500 with a five-race streak of top-10s; better still, four of these were top-fives and that means he was in contention to win on any given weekend. He hasn't won on this track yet, but with three second-place finishes, he's come close. His willingness to push other drivers across the finish line is actually part of his strength, in fact, because it means he is less likely to get into trouble while trying to make an ill-timed pass. Kenseth, Harvick, and Newman have all actually benefitted recently from Busch’s help, each with a recent Daytona 500 win to his credit. Their timing has proven to just be a little better than that of Busch. Juan Montoya, David Ragan, Elliott Sadler, and Kasey Kahne are also capable plate racers.

You may have noticed that I’ve yet to mention the name of Jimmie Johnson, the four-time defending series champion and winner of the series’ last two events. The truth is that Daytona has been far from his best track with just one win, 59 total laps led, and an average finish of 21.2 in 16 career starts. oddsmakers don’t seem to be taking him all that seriously for Saturday, listing him at 10-1 odds, well below his normal standard. In the COT, his average Daytona finish dips to 23.6 and he’s only been out front only five laps in five races. Jeff Gordon’s numbers haven’t been strong either, as he seems to have lost some of the plate track touch that highlighted the early part of his career. In the 11 COT plate races, he has a win, but that is his only top 5 in that span with an average finish of 24.8. Martin Truex has been even worse, with an average finish of 25.0 in those 11 starts and just a single Top 10. Of course, you can’t talk about plate track racing without mentioning the name of Mark Martin, whose disdain for it is well documented. The stats reflect it too. Though qualifying very well (5.9 average start), Martin has been bumped back often, with an average finish of 22.9 in his last eight starts.

It should be a colorful, exciting, and patriotic event as always, as the Sprint Cup Series runs its 18th race of the season, reaching the halfway point. The Green Flag is set to drop on Saturday at 7:49 PM ET on Saturday night. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the high speed excitement…