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January 15th Auto Racing news ... Bet Indy 500 at bet-indy500.com
NASCAR: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen
2021-08-04
Just five races remain until the start of the Chase, with the next top scheduled for Sunday in up-state New York at Watkins Glen International. The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen, the second and final road course event of the season, is a 90 lap jaunt around The Glen’s 2.45 mile course, complete with 11 turns and banking between 6 and 10 degrees. Any mention of favorites for Sunday’s race would have to include Jimmie Johnson, the winner of the June Sonoma event, Tony Stewart, one of the hottest road course drivers of late, plus Marcos Ambrose and Juan Montoya, two drivers with a ton of career experience on this type of track with other series’. Not coincidentally, that group of drivers represents the Top 4 in average finish at road course events since the start of the ’07 season.
Tony Stewart is an obvious choice for favorite, as he leads the circuit in average finish at road courses since 2007, at 4.3. He is the defending champion of this race, and moreover, has actually won five of the last eight Watkins Glen events. It’s quite obvious that he prefers this road course over the Sonoma track. Still, he has scored a Top 10 finish in all seven of the road course events run in the COT. Jimmie Johnson hasn’t been recognized as a road course ace throughout his career, but understanding these tracks were one of his “weak spots”, he has worked hard at improving on them. The work paid off in June when he scored his first road win of his career at Sonoma. Over the last seven road events, Johnson has an average finish of 8.4 with four Top 10’s. However, he would not have won in June without benefitting from a caution flag minimum speed violation by Marcos Ambrose, who was on pace for a first ever win before the problem. Ambrose has a solid career road course average finish of 11.2 with four Top 10’s in five starts. Juan Montoya has been a bit better with six Top 10’s in seven starts and an average finish of 10.3.
Kyle Busch has to be given strong consideration as well as the series heads to Watkins Glen. He has been out front at the road course events more than any other driver since 2007, leading 155 laps. That is 66 more than Jimmie Johnson, and 81 more than Tony Stewart. He has two wins to his credit as well during that time span, with one of them coming at the Glen in 2008. Along with that, he owns four other Top 10’s in the seven starts. The other two drivers who figure to be in the mix are Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon, both of whom are the only other drivers not mentioned to this point with five Top 10’s in the last seven road course races. Although neither has a win in that span, Gordon has been out front for 51 laps, and Hamlin 36.
Beyond the seven drivers detailed up to this point, any other winner reaching Victory Lane would be a sizeable upset. Current Cup Series points leader Kevin Harvick is a possibility, with a win in 2006 here to his credit. Kasey Kahne could pull a surprise too, as he is the only other driver to have won a road race in the COT. Of course, it always makes sense to at least consider the drivers who have been running well of late, and that group would include Greg Biffle, last week’s winner at Pocono, Carl Edwards, the third place finisher a week ago, plus Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer, Harvick’s Childress Racing teammates who seem to be getting hot at just the right time. As usual, there will be plenty of road course ringers on hand to substitute as drivers for their respective teams. The most notable one is Boris Said, who will be filling in for Reed Sorenson in the #83 Red Bull Toyota. Still, no non-regular driver has ever won a Cup series road event, a fact quite puzzling.
For every driver that loes the road course events, there is one that hates them. For Sunday, the list of drivers you might want to steer away from include David Reutimann, David Ragan, Jamie McMurray, Mark Martin, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Reutimann has an average finish of just 29.8 on road courses in the COT, without a single Top 10 finish nor lap led. Ragan & Martin share the same Top 10 and laps led deficiency and an average finish of at least 24.0. McMurray & Junior have combined to lead 69 laps during that stretch but neither has a Top 10 finish to show for it along with an average of 23.6 or worse.
Greg Biffle’s win last week enabled him to gain key ground in his quest to lock up a Chase spot. Sitting in 11th position, he is now 122 points in front of 13th place Mark Martin. Clint Bowyer is in between them, but 88 points behind Biffle. Martin is really the only driver who maintains a spot in contention for qualifying for the Chase, as 14th place Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is 129 points out of 12th place with Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray and David Reutimann all trailing him by less than 55 points. The top spot remains unchanged with Kevin Harvick holding a 189-point lead over Jeff Gordon. The big winner last week was Jeff Burton, who climbed two spots to 5th, while Kurt Busch fell a pair of spots to 7th.
This week’s qualifying is scheduled for 11:10 AM ET on Saturday. A recent statistical study by StatFox has revealed that the combination of qualifying and practice speeds has proven more critical at Watkins Glen than at any other track in terms of finishing in the Top 10. In fact, of the previous 23 races here, 12 winners have started in the top 3, and none have ever started outside 18th. The average starting position of the winner is 6.2. The average Happy Hour rank is 9.4. The green flag for the race drops at 1:18 PM ET on Sunday. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, & Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the race action…
NASCAR: Pennsylvania 500 (1:18 PM ET, ESPN)
2021-07-30
NASCAR continues its march towards the Chase when it travels to Pocono Raceway again on Sunday for the Pennsylvania 500. This will be the second time in two months that the Cup Series will have visited Pocono, following Denny Hamlin’s win in the June race. Hamlin just happens to be the defending champion of this race too, and accomplished the season sweep at this track in the 2006 season. Is it any wonder why he is the race favorite for Sunday at 4-1 odds according to ?
The rest of the favorites board includes Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch, at 6-1, plus Jeff Gordon, at 9-1. Of the three, none really commands any respect due to recent performance at this venue. Busch‘s career is actually littered with struggles at Pocono, as he owns just three Top 10 finishes in 11 prior starts. One of those came in June though, in his runner-up finish. Johnson has two career Pocono wins, but none since ’04. Gordon is tied with Hamlin at the top of the active career wins board, with four. However, since the advent of the COT, he has just a single Top 5 and average finish of 13.6 in five starts.
Hamlin truly is the man to beat this week, as he had led 179 of 404 laps in the last two races here and has been in the Top 15 in 403 of those, or 99.8%! He is the career average finish leader at 8.6 and owns seven Top 10 finishes in his nine starts. Oddsmakers might want to adjust their second tier favorites though, as several other drivers figure to have a better shot to win than Johnson, Gordon, or Busch. Instead you might want to consider Carl Edwards (20-1), Tony Stewart (10-1), Kasey Kahne (20-1), Juan Montoya (20-1), or Clint Bowyer (12-1). Edwards is second to Hamlin in laps led in the COT at 158, and has a win and average finish of 8.4 in those five starts. Stewart, like Hamlin, has three Top 5’s in those races, including a 3rd place finish in June. Kahne has a ’08 win and 145 laps led in the COT to his credit, while Bowyer is among the other drivers who seems to run out front at this track, evidenced by his 82 laps led. Finally, there is Montoya…victim of what seems to be the worst luck of any driver on these 2.5-mile flat superspeedway’s. He finished eighth here in June but has two DNF’s in the COT to go along with consecutive DNF’s at Indy.
A series sweep at Pocono is not uncommon, as the only real difference between this race and the June one figures to be that the track has heated up over the course of the summer. In addition, the schedule of recent years has this race always the week after the Brickyard 400, meaning a second consecutive race on a 2.5-mile flat track. While Indianapolis Motor Speedway's rectangular shape is significantly different than the Pocono triangle, many of the same skills are required to go fast on both. Drivers who ran well last week also should dominate the front of the pack this week. Of course, there always is the uncertain intangible of luck. Jamie McMurray (25-1) was the beneficiary of the luck last week, as he won the Brickyard 400 only after Montoya, who dominated most of the race, hit the wall late in a desperate attempt to get back out front after a miscalculated pit road choice.
Of the potential dark horses to consider, or those drivers who don’t boast the best Pocono stats, Kevin Harvick (10-1) finished fourth in the first Pocono race and enters the weekend with top-fives in his past two flat-track races and there is every indication he will add another at Pocono. Sam Hornish Jr. (25-1) is a bigger longshot but last year, he swept the top 10 in both races there and narrowly missed adding a third such finish with an 11th earlier this year. Dollar for dollar, he might be the best value in the game this week. Jamie McMurray is developing a reputation for stepping up for the big races after winning this year's Daytona 500, finishing second in the Coke 600, and winning last week's Brickyard 400. It remains to be seen if he can level out his results and also run strong on smaller stages, but considering that he earned a fifth at Chicagoland two weeks ago, he's well worth the risk. So far it's been difficult for McMurray to string together good results. This week, he enters Pocono with consecutive top-fives for the first time all season. Greg Biffle (20-1) is also noteworthy in that he had a strong third place run at Indy and may be readying himself for a late charge to ensure a Chase spot.
Other drivers you may want to avoid include Joey Logano (35-1), Kurt Busch (20-1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (35-1), and Mark Martin (25-1). Of the four, there is just a single Top 5 finish, belonging to Junior, in the five races run in the COT.
The action gets started with qualifying at 3:40 pm ET on Friday. Denny Hamlin started 4th in the June victory, and runner-up Kyle Busch started 2nd. In short, qualifying is very important here. In fact, of the last 16 races, six winners have started on the pole and six others were in the first three rows. Practice is also highly important, as the last nine Pocono winners have averaged a 5.0 Happy Hour rank with only one finishing worse than 6th in the session. Sunday’s race comes around at 1:18 pm ET.
Brickyard 400 (1:15 PM ET, ESPN)
2021-07-24
Seven races remain until the NASCAR Cup Series reaches the Chase, or the postseason if you will. After enjoying the last weekend off, the drivers get back to work at famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where they’ve been coming once annually for the Brickyard 400 ever since ’94. There has been just a short list of dominant drivers here historically, with Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett sharing honors in the early years and since passing the torch on to Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. In fact, those latter two have won the last five races at Indy and for good reason are listed as the favorites for Sunday according to .
With just seven races remaining to qualify for the Chase, this race takes on significance, perhaps even more than usual, since Indianapolis’ sister track, Pocono Raceway, also is on the upcoming schedule. Drivers that fare well at this 2-1/2 mile flat superspeedway typically do well at Pocono, which has similar features. That said, a victory this week is a much-coveted one, both for the pageantry of the host venue, the Brickyard, as well as the prize money disbursed to the winner. As is usually the case, the stars tend shine brightest on the biggest stage, as the last seven winners of this race are mega-stars. Jimmie Johnson & Tony Stewart have won the last five Brickyard 400’s, with Johnson being the defending two-time champion. Jeff Gordon won the 2004 event and Kevin Harvick reached Victory Lane in 2003. Of course, those latter two are currently the 2010 standings.It’s interesting to note that Johnson, winner of three of the last four races here, went on to his first of four straight series titles after taking home his first Checkered Flag from Indy. In fact, that feat has happened now eight times in 16 years, further signifying the importance of winning the Brickyard 400.
Most experts believe that there is only a slight difference between the car setups used at Indianapolis to those at Pocono. Keep that in mind when handicapping, since coincidentally, another trip to Pocono follows this week’s event. The top three in the June race at Pocono were Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Tony Stewart. Looking at the results at the two tracks combined in the COT (since ’08), you’ll find Jimmie Johnson atop the heap in almost every key statistical category. In seven total races, he leads in Poles (2), Wins (2), Average Finish (5.1), Top 5’s (4), Top 10’s (6), and Laps Led (241). It’s no wonder that oddsmakers have established him as the 7-2 favorite. Stewart is next at 7-1, and he boasts four Top 5’s as well in that 7-race stretch, along with an average finish of 11.0. Denny Hamlin is listed at 8-1, with 222 laps led and four Top 5’s. However, his success has come mostly at Pocono, with his average finish at Indy in four career starts just 17.3.
Beyond the three favorites in terms of stats and odds, you’ll find a handful of other drivers capable of competing for the win on Sunday. Jeff Gordon, at 8-1 heads that list. He has a remarkable 10 Top 5’s in 2010, though he’s yet to reach Victory Lane. Having spent time in his childhood in Indiana, many consider this Gordon’s home track, and he could break the winless drought on Sunday. It would be his career-leading 5th Indy win. Kyle Busch also shares 8-1 odds, although he has not won in five Inday starts, and has averaged just a 24.6 finish in the seven flat superspeedway races in the COT. Juan Montoya (12-1), Kevin Harvick (12-1), Jeff Burton (14-1), Carl Edwards (20-1) and Kasey Kahne (20-1)will wrap up my own personal short list of contenders for the weekend. Typically, a driver has to be either running very well at the time, or have a rich history at Indy to win the Brickyard 400. All five meet one or both of that criteria. Of the group, Kahne & Edwards are the only winners at a track like this in the last seven COT races, though Montoya has threatened to win and seems to love coming back to the Brickyard, a track he ran while in open wheel racing. The Childress guys, Harvick and Burton, are running very well over the last month.
Among the drivers you may want to avoid this week, at least in terms of the numbers, are Kurt Busch (12-1), Matt Kenseth (25-1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1), Martin Truex (35-1), and Jamie McMurray (35-1).Busch has surprisingly bad numbers at Pocono and Indy in the COT, with an average finish of 23.6 and two DNF’s. Kenseth is struggling to put things together during his break-in period with his new crew chief, and has averaged just 15.7 in the past seven flat superspeedway races. Junior, Truex, and McMurray are longshots as the odds suggest, and have combined for only three Top 10 finishes and 17 laps led in 21 starts.
This week’s qualifying for the Brickyard 400 begins Saturday at 10:10 AM ET, with the race green flag scheduled for Sunday at 1:19 PM ET. With track position being critical, the qualifying usually plays a huge factor, with eight of the previous 16 winners starting in the top 5. Jimmie Johnson started 16th a year ago and won. No winner has ever come from worse than the 27th starting spot. Johnson has also finished 3rd in ’09, and 1st in ’08 in Happy Hour, so if he demonstrates similar speed this weekend in practice, look out.
NASCAR: Lifelock.com 400 (7:30 PM ET, TNT)
2021-07-09
The NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit opens up the second half of the season at Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, Il. Saturday’s Lifelock.com 400, will be the 10th annual race at the 1.5 mile tri-oval, and so far, only two drivers have reached Victory Lane more than once, current series leader Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart, with two wins each. Strangely, despite that and the fact that both are in the top four among active drivers in Top 5’s & Top 10’s at this track, you won’t find either listed among the race favorites. In fact, according to , at least five drivers are listed better than Harvick at 12-1, and Stewart at 20-1. Can they pull the upset?
Kevin Harvick takes a huge point lead into the season’s second half, 212-points over Jeff Gordon and 225-points over Jimmie Johnson. Kurt Busch (-245), Denny Hamlin (-284), and Kyle Busch (-308) round out the Top 6. Of those, only Gordon has yet to win a race this season, as the others have all accomplished that feat at least twice, led by Johnson and Hamlin at five apiece. The odds for this week’s Lifelock.com 400 are highly reflective of the standings, as the Top 6 are the favored six for the race. Johnson is the official favorite, at 7-2 odds, despite the fact that he has never won in Chicago in eight starts. Hamlin is next at 6-1 but has a far from rich history here. Kyle Busch is 7-1, and won this race two years ago. Gordon is 8-1, and won here is 2006, although that was when they ran on Sunday afternoon. Kurt Busch is 10-1, and Harvick is 12-1.
Kevin Harvick comes off the huge win at Daytona in which he alternated between helping teammate and frontrunner for most of the 166 laps. Kasey Kahne (15-1) came in second, followed up by Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton (12-1) and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1). There were several huge multi-car wreck incidents as well that collected among others Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Juan Montoya, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray. Of those, Newman, Logano, and McMurray took the biggest hit in the standings, as each remains on the outside of the Chase looking in right now. Earnhardt, Jr. was the biggest beneficiary, climbing up into the Top 12 in 11th, seven points ahead of Carl Edwards, and 46-points in front of Mark Martin.
Last year’s race here set a record for fewest cautions and was thoroughly dominated by Mark Martin, who led 195 of the 267 laps and spent every single lap in the Top 15. That win was one of several Martin had by this time a year ago, but unfortunately, he seems so far removed from even contending for a win in 2010. Oddsmakers have taken notice, listing him at 25-1. As mentioned earlier, the race at Chicagoland used to be held on Sunday afternoon. Consistently brutal weather conditions forced a move by NASCAR prior to the 2008 race though, as it seemed as if race day always fell on the hottest day of the year. I should know, since I actually attended this race in 2006 in near 100-degree temperatures. When the races were run in the afternoon there was typically a lot of attrition, due to both wrecks and motors going. Heat, drivers, and engines just don’t seem to mix well. Thus, if you’re really getting down to statistics when handicapping this week’s race, you may want to consider just looking at the last two years’ events. Those were both at night, and both in the COT.
The stats show Tony Stewart leading the way in average finish in the last two visits to Chicagoland, at 4.5. he has 4th & 5th place finishes to his credit, adding to five other Top 5’s he had beforehand at this venue. That leads the career list. Interestingly, Stewart, for his overall success, has only led 12 laps in the two races here of ’08 & ’09. The drivers most frequently at the front have been Mark Martin (195 – all in ’09 win) and Kyle Busch (165 – all in ’08 win). Jimmie Johnson is next among non-winners with 73 laps led while Greg Biffle has paced 43 laps. Johnson has also averaged a 5th place finish in the last two events with Jeff Gordon third in that category at 6.5. The drivers that have really struggled here the last two years have been Jeff Burton (28.0 avg. fin.), Carl Edwards (23.0), Kurt Busch (22.5), and Denny Hamlin (22.5). For Hamlin, the last two years have continued a trend that finds him averaging just a 19th place finish in four career Joliet starts.
Overall, as you handicap this race, take a look at the recent action at the so called “cookie cutter” tracks, the 1-1/2 mile ovals like Texas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Lowe’s, particularly those at Lowe’s where the action is also under the lights. Incidentally, Kurt Busch won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May. Neither qualifying nor practice speeds have amounted to much when it comes to indicators of success here, with only one of the nine previous winners starting in the Top 5 (average 14.9) and only one of the last five practicing better than 12th (17.8). The green flag for the Lifelock.com 400 is set to drop on Saturday night at 7:46 PM ET on TNT again.
NASCAR: Coke Zero 400 (7:30 PM ET, TNT)
2021-07-02
It’s had a handful of different names over the years, including Firecracker 400, Pepsi 400 and now Coke Zero 400, but Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona is always one of the best on the yearly schedule. This race is how NASCAR honors the 4th of July weekend, and it is well-recognized for fireworks both on and off the track. The combination of night racing, superspeedway action at the circuit’s most famous track, and holiday pageantry make the Coke Zero 400 “must-see TV”. On top of all that, Daytona is always competitive down to the final pass of the start-finish line, and while there are certain favorites who will be out front for much of Saturday’s race, underdogs are certainly capable of winning. Consider Jamie McMurray, winner of February’s Daytona 500, and owner of three straight Top 2 finishes on plate tracks. Oddsmakers show him at an intriguing 16-1 price.
There are a handful of drivers who have consistently set the pace at Daytona and Talladega since the introduction of the COT in NASCAR back in ’07. In fact, there are four drivers that have led over 200 laps in the 11 plate races run in the new cars. Those would include Kyle Busch (310 LL, 13-2 odds), Denny Hamlin (244, 18-1), Tony Stewart (242, 6-1), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (201, 10-1). Of the four, Hamlin and Junior haven’t registered a win in that span, while Busch and Stewart have recorded two each. Jamie McMurray is the only other driver with multiple plate wins in that time frame. Furthermore, Stewart, Busch, and McMurray make up the last five winners of this race, with Stewart having accomplished the feat three times, including last July. As you analyze the stats for the plate tracks, note that they can be deceiving, as Busch and Stewart, despite their lofty laps led totals and multiple wins, are tied for just fourth in average finish in plate races since October ’07, with 15.91. A driver is just as likely to score a Top 10 finish in these races as he is to wreck and DNF.
As I just indicated, average finish statistics at Daytona can be misleading. Look no further than the fact that the driver with the lowest average finish in his career here is Clint Bowyer (14-1), with a very modest 17.9. He only owns two Top 5’s without a win in eight career starts. Jeff Gordon (8-1) paces the field with six career DIS wins but has not reached Victory lane at this prestigious venue since February ’05. Therefore, with the favorites being recognized earlier, albeit some with less than favorite odds, are there any other darkhorses to consider? Of course, and I would start with Kurt Busch (8-1), Matt Kenseth (12-1), Kevin Harvick (13-1), and Ryan Newman (22-1), each of whom is highly regarded for his plate-track prowess. In fact, the driver with the best record during the past three years is Kurt Busch. He entered this year's Daytona 500 with a five-race streak of top-10s; better still, four of these were top-fives and that means he was in contention to win on any given weekend. He hasn't won on this track yet, but with three second-place finishes, he's come close. His willingness to push other drivers across the finish line is actually part of his strength, in fact, because it means he is less likely to get into trouble while trying to make an ill-timed pass. Kenseth, Harvick, and Newman have all actually benefitted recently from Busch’s help, each with a recent Daytona 500 win to his credit. Their timing has proven to just be a little better than that of Busch. Juan Montoya, David Ragan, Elliott Sadler, and Kasey Kahne are also capable plate racers.
You may have noticed that I’ve yet to mention the name of Jimmie Johnson, the four-time defending series champion and winner of the series’ last two events. The truth is that Daytona has been far from his best track with just one win, 59 total laps led, and an average finish of 21.2 in 16 career starts. oddsmakers don’t seem to be taking him all that seriously for Saturday, listing him at 10-1 odds, well below his normal standard. In the COT, his average Daytona finish dips to 23.6 and he’s only been out front only five laps in five races. Jeff Gordon’s numbers haven’t been strong either, as he seems to have lost some of the plate track touch that highlighted the early part of his career. In the 11 COT plate races, he has a win, but that is his only top 5 in that span with an average finish of 24.8. Martin Truex has been even worse, with an average finish of 25.0 in those 11 starts and just a single Top 10. Of course, you can’t talk about plate track racing without mentioning the name of Mark Martin, whose disdain for it is well documented. The stats reflect it too. Though qualifying very well (5.9 average start), Martin has been bumped back often, with an average finish of 22.9 in his last eight starts.
It should be a colorful, exciting, and patriotic event as always, as the Sprint Cup Series runs its 18th race of the season, reaching the halfway point. The Green Flag is set to drop on Saturday at 7:49 PM ET on Saturday night. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the high speed excitement…
NASCAR: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 (1:00 PM ET, TNT)
2021-06-11
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series continues its summer tour with the first of two stops over the next eight weeks at Michigan International Speedway. The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 is slated for Sunday and a quick check of the odds board finds all of the usual top dogs expected to win. Jimmie Johnson is the official favorite at 7-2, with Kyle Busch next at 5-1, and both Jeff Gordon & Denny Hamlin the only other drivers in single digits at 8-1. Strangely, none of that quartet has won at Michigan since Jeff Gordon did so in 2001. In fact, he is the only one of them who has a win at this facility. Perhaps oddsmakers, or more importantly bettors, should take a closer look at drivers like Carl Edwards (20-1) Kurt Busch (10-1), or Matt Kenseth (15-1), more recent winners at MIS. Mark Martin (20-1), the defending champion of this race, could also be worth a shot.
The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the “Chase for the Cup”. Currently, Kevin Harvick (20-1) leads the standings by 19 points over Kyle Busch. The hot driver though is Denny Hamlin, who sits in third, 136 points back. Hamlin picked up his fourth win of the young season last week at Pocono. Again though, none of the three has ever won at Michigan and moreover, none has averaged any better than an average finish of 12.5 in the four COT races run at this track over the last two years. If there ever was a race where an upset winner could emerge this might be it. When you consider that Brian Vickers won in the most recent race here last August, the chances are even greater.
When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.1), and average finish over the last two years (4.0). In his last four starts, he has won, scored three Top 5’s, and led 107 total laps. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.9), and also has two Top 5 finishes in the last four races. Elsewhere, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Greg Biffle, and Jeff Gordon each also boast a pair Top 5 finishes in the COT. If you’ve noticed a pattern here, it’s that Roush Racing seems to have a good handle on what it takes to win at Michigan. You may have also noticed that the name of Jimmie Johnson has not been mentioned in the top finishing stats. That is because he has endured some bad luck at MIS of late, much like his recent 2010 season. Though he has led a dominant 356 laps in the last four races here, he has averaged a finish of 19.5 without a single Top 5.
So much of what happens nowadays in NASCAR hinges on which drivers are hot lately. As such, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin have to be considered contenders on Sunday. Between the three of them, they have won six of the last seven races overall. They are also three of the Top 5 in the season standings. Of those, Kyle has the best recent resume at Michigan, with an average finish of 12.8 in the COT and 48 laps led during that four-race span. Hamlin has done reasonably well throughout his career, with an average finish of 13.3 but just 5 total laps led in eight starts. Kurt has two career wins at MIS, but those are his only Top 5 finishes among an average of 20.3 in 18 starts.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season’s second race won by Jimmie Johnson, who held off the trio of Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Joey Logano. With this being the “sister-track”, expect all of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday.
Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, seven of the last 10 winners, including Mark Martin last year (32nd), started outside the Top 10. In fact, Martin became the first driver to start worse than 28th and win. Practice in the COT era has been a huge factor, with the winner in the last four races averaging a rank of 2.75 in Happy Hour with three of the four ranking first or second. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 1:15 PM ET on Sunday.
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